The normalized results of the IFE's final result were: EPN - 38.94%, AMLO - 32.2%, JVM - 25.9%, GQT - 2.95% (Gross: EPN - 38.21%, AMLO - 31.59%, JVM - 25.41%, GQT - 2.90%)

The solid line is the Bayes estimate of the "true" voting intention of each candidate taking into account the effects of each polling firm. The dots are the individual polls.

Forecast on election day (historical):


This page was made by Diego Valle-Jones. Visit the election posts on my blog for more information. You can download the replication code or just the poll data (polldb.csv and polldb-weeklygea.csv).


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